Demographics

Modelled estimates of annual live births by year ending date. Official birth estimates from ONS are considered very accurate, but the lag between the end of the period covered and the publication of estimates is typically 9-12 months. To gain a more timely indication of birth trends, the GLA Demography team produces modelled estimates of annual births...

Modelled counts of patients registered at a GP practice by single year of age (0-95+), sex, and local authority of residence. These modelled data contain information from NHS Digital, licenced under the current version of the Open Government Licence: Counts of patients by practice attended x sex x LSOA of residence - currently published quarterly Counts of...

These modelled annual population estimates were created for use the GLA's population projections. They are intended to provide a consistent series of annual population and components of change between census years with all change accounted for by the standard components of change (births, deaths, and migration). The official mid-year population estimates published by ONS are available here. The original detailed internal migration data...

Estimated age specific fertility rates for local authorities, ITL (level 2) subregions, and regions in England and Wales. Rates modelled by the GLA using published ONS data on births by age of mother and annual population estimates. All data is published on 2021 geographic boundaries.

The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections. This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses. Inputs: Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type. Census estimates...

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year...

This dataset has now moved to https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/birth-estimates

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by...

The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection. The 2016-based projections remain the most recent set of GLA ethnic group projections.

The Mayor is committed to measuring social integration in London. Providing evidence-based analysis of the state of social integration will allow him to shine a light on the whole city. Accompanying the Social Integration Strategy published in March 2018, the Mayor published a set of measures tracking social integration in London. These measures were selected from existing high-quality datasets, such as...