Modelled estimates of annual live births by year ending date. Official birth estimates from ONS are considered very accurate, but the lag between the end of the period covered and the publication of estimates is typically 9-12 months. To gain a more timely indication of birth trends, the GLA Demography team produces modelled estimates of annual births...

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year...

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by...